The Global Land Squeeze

Pursuing Sustainable Land Use in the 21st Century

As we attempt to balance competing demands on a finite resource, the choices we make about land use will fundamentally shape humanity's future on this planet.

Explore the Challenge

The Invisible Crisis Beneath Our Feet

Imagine a vast natural tapestry stretching across continents—a complex, living skin that breathes, filters, grows, and sustains. This is our land, Earth's terrestrial foundation that quietly supports nearly every aspect of human civilization.

35.9B

metric tons of soil eroded annually worldwide 2

Brazil

equivalent cropland needed by 2030 to meet growing demands 6

This isn't just an environmental issue—it's a multidimensional challenge that touches everything from global food security and climate stability to economic prosperity and social equity. The "global land squeeze" is the quiet crisis of our time, as we attempt to balance competing demands on a finite resource 3 .

Understanding the Land Squeeze: A Perfect Storm of Competing Demands

Land has always been precious, but the 21st century has brought unique pressures that have intensified what scientists now term the "global land squeeze" 3 . This concept describes the increasingly fierce competition between different land uses as we attempt to meet growing human needs while protecting the natural systems that sustain us.

Demand Category Key Drivers Projected Growth by 2030
Food Production Population growth, dietary shifts toward meat consumption 20% of additional cropland needed 6
Livestock Feed Increasing demand for animal products ~70% of additional cropland needed 6
Biofuel Production Energy security, climate mitigation ~10% of additional cropland needed 6
Natural Capital Climate commitments, biodiversity protection Competing priority for existing land

What makes this squeeze particularly challenging is that the most suitable land is often desired for multiple uses simultaneously. A single parcel in Brazil might be ideal for soybean cultivation, crucial for carbon sequestration, and vital for endangered species habitat—all at once 6 .

Rethinking Our Approach: From Single-Purpose to Multifunctional Landscapes

For much of modern history, land management has been characterized by sectoral fragmentation—agriculture experts focused solely on crop yields, foresters on timber production, and conservationists on protecting pristine habitats 1 . This siloed thinking has proven inadequate for addressing the interconnected challenges we now face.

In response, a new paradigm has emerged: landscape approaches 1 . These frameworks recognize that we must simultaneously consider multiple goals—food production, ecosystem health, human wellbeing, and climate resilience—across entire socio-ecological systems rather than individual parcels.

The Power of Multifunctionality

At the heart of sustainable land use lies the concept of multifunctionality—the ability of landscapes to provide multiple benefits simultaneously 4 . Rather than maximizing single functions (like crop yields) at the expense of others, multifunctional landscapes balance economic, social, and environmental goals.

Economic Benefits

Economic multifunctionality was approximately 1.7 to 1.9 times higher for sustainable management compared to intensive approaches 4 .

Ecological Benefits

Sustainable management enhances ecological multifunctionality, providing multiple ecosystem services simultaneously 4 .

Management Approach Key Characteristics Impact on Multifunctionality
Conventional Intensive High chemical inputs, simplified ecosystems Decreases ecological and economic multifunctionality 4
Sustainable Management Reduced chemical inputs, maintenance of biodiversity Enhances ecological and economic multifunctionality 4
Landscape Approach Multi-stakeholder governance, integrated planning Addresses sectoral fragmentation; promotes balance 1

A Groundbreaking Experiment: Testing Sustainable Land Use Under Future Climate

How can we be sure that sustainable approaches will work under the changing conditions of the 21st century? Scientists at the Global Change Experimental Facility (GCEF) in Germany have created one of the world's most comprehensive field experiments to answer exactly this question 4 .

10

Years of continuous research (2014-2023)

50

Experimental plots of approximately 400 m² each

14

Ecosystem functions measured

What the Research Revealed

The findings from this decade-long investigation provide some of the most compelling evidence to date for the superiority of sustainable approaches. The research team discovered that:

Sustainable management enhanced multifunctionality

Sustainable management enhanced both ecological and economic multifunctionality across both grassland and cropland systems 4 .

Future climate decreased ecological multifunctionality

Future climate conditions generally decreased ecological multifunctionality, making sustainable approaches even more crucial for resilience 4 .

Soil biodiversity correlated with multifunctionality

Soil biodiversity correlated positively with ecological multifunctionality, suggesting it may be one of the key drivers of multiple ecosystem benefits 4 .

This nuanced finding highlights a critical challenge: the currently prevailing land management provides high multifunctionality for farmers, but not for society at large 4 . This misalignment of incentives represents a major barrier to widespread adoption of sustainable practices.

The Global Soil Erosion Crisis: New Insights from High-Tech Mapping

While experiments like the GCEF study reveal what's possible at the field scale, other researchers have been documenting the sobering reality of current land degradation at a global scale. Using an unprecedentedly high-resolution model (250 × 250 m), an international team has produced startling new estimates of global soil erosion 2 .

35.9 Petagrams

of soil eroded annually worldwide 2

2.5% Increase

in global soil erosion between 2001-2012 2

Shocking Findings

The research challenged previous assumptions about soil erosion, revealing that:

  • Approximately 35.9 petagrams (billion metric tons) of soil are eroded annually 2 New finding
  • This estimate is at least two times lower than previous reference values 2 Revised estimate
  • The greatest increases in soil erosion are occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia 2 Hotspot
  • The world's least developed economies experience the highest soil erosion rates 2 Critical

Perhaps most concerningly, the study noted that technological improvements and increased fertilizer use have masked ongoing soil degradation in recent decades, creating a false sense of security about the health of our land base 2 .

Pathways to Balance: Ten Actions for a Sustainable Land Transition

The challenges are significant, but research points to concrete solutions. Analysis by leading organizations suggests that a portfolio of ten key actions could lay the foundation for sustainable land use by 2030 6 .

Supply-Side Solutions

1. Convert degraded land

Convert degraded land to productive use in sustainable ways, which could supply a significant portion of required additional cropland 6 .

2. Boost yield growth

Boost yield growth through innovation, particularly by closing yield gaps in developing regions 6 .

3. Expand trade

Expand trade to increase system resilience and reduce overall land needs 6 .

Demand-Side Strategies

4. Reduce food waste

Reduce food waste, which currently accounts for approximately one-third of all food produced.

5. Shift consumption patterns

Shift consumption patterns toward less land-intensive diets.

6. Develop innovative alternatives

Develop innovative alternatives to land-intensive products.

7. Utilize marine resources

Utilize sustainable offshore and marine resources more effectively 6 .

8. Strengthen cooperation

Strengthen international cooperation to address knowledge and implementation gaps 1 .

9. Promote integration

Promote actual interdisciplinary integration in research and policy-making 1 .

10. Incorporate reflexivity

Incorporate reflexivity in land governance, systematically examining challenges, success factors, and limitations 1 .

$300 Billion

Estimated investment needed to convert degraded land at the required scale 6

Our Shared Future on a Finite Planet

The evidence is clear: we stand at a pivotal moment in humanity's relationship with the land that sustains us.

Multifunctional Landscapes

The 20th-century model of maximizing single outputs is no longer viable.

Six Harvest Cycles

We have just six harvest cycles until 2030 to put the foundations in place 6 .

Collective Will

The knowledge and tools exist; what's needed is collective will to implement solutions.

The future of our land—and by extension, our civilization—depends on the choices we make today. The sustainable land systems of the 21st century must be multifunctional, resilient, and equitable, recognizing that we are not separate from nature but fundamentally dependent on its enduring capacity to sustain us all.

Time Remaining: 65%

Based on the timeline to 2030 for implementing sustainable land transition foundations 6

References