The Future of Sustainable Cereals
How a Danish Workshop Envisioned Farming Beyond 2020
April 2008 | Karrebæksminde, Denmark
Introduction
In April 2008, against the backdrop of the global food crisis and growing concerns about climate change, 55 scientists from 21 European countries gathered in the small coastal town of Karrebæksminde, Denmark.
Their mission was ambitious: to fundamentally reimagine how we grow our most essential food crops. This diverse group of geneticists, plant breeders, agronomists, and soil specialists participated in the SUSVAR Visions Workshop with a focused goal—to design a sustainable future for cereal production beyond 2020 1 2 .
What emerged from this three-day workshop was nothing short of a revolution in thinking about sustainable agriculture. Rather than focusing on incremental improvements to existing systems, these researchers took a radically different approach—they started by envisioning the most desirable future possible and then worked backward to determine how to get there. Their conclusions, compiled in seven groundbreaking discussion documents, continue to influence how we think about sustainable food systems today 1 4 .
Workshop Statistics
55
Scientists
21
Countries
7
Discussion Documents
3
Days
Envisioning Sustainable Cereals: The Karrebæksminde Approach
Breaking Free From Conventional Thinking
The SUSVAR workshop employed a unique methodology called "appreciative inquiry"—a strategic approach more common in industrial management than agricultural science. Instead of focusing on problems and limitations, participants were encouraged to practice "scientific creative thinking" based on possibilities rather than constraints 1 .
As Professor Hanne Østergård, the SUSVAR coordinator, explained: "We started with a wide spectrum of opinion from commercial breeders through university plant and soil scientists to organic systems specialists" 4 .
Imagining the future is shaping the future
The guiding philosophy that encouraged participants to break free from traditional problem-solving approaches 1 .
The Seven Key Topics
The workshop organized its visioning process around seven essential topics critical to the future of sustainable cereal production:
Food vs. Bioenergy
Competition between food and bioenergy crops
Soil Fertility
Soil fertility management approaches
Legal Conditions
Economical and legal conditions for variety improvement
Stakeholders
Participation of stakeholders in research
Breeding Strategies
Plant breeding strategies for sustainability
Processing
Food and feed processing improvements
Land Use
Sustainable land use practices
For each topic, participants visualized the most desirable future scenario without the constraint of market-driven goals. Each issue was discussed in relation to a broader socio-ecological system, with a focus on the means to achieve sustainable outcomes 1 .
Key Visions and Breakthroughs
Beyond Food vs. Fuel: Integrated Farming Systems
One of the most significant visions to emerge addressed the competition between food and bioenergy crops. Rather than seeing this as a zero-sum game, participants envisioned integrated farming systems where cereal production would contribute to both food security and renewable energy needs through clever use of crop residues and dedicated energy crops within rotations 1 4 .
This integrated approach anticipated today's circular agriculture concepts by more than a decade. The discussions recognized that sustainable cereal production would need to be multifunctional—contributing to energy needs while simultaneously supporting biodiversity, soil health, and food production 4 .
Soil Fertility as a Living System
The workshop's vision for soil fertility management moved far beyond simply adding fertilizers. Participants envisioned systems that would enhance soil organic matter, promote microbial diversity, and create resilient growing systems less dependent on external inputs.
These ideas have since gained substantial scientific support, with growing recognition of soil as a complex living system rather than merely a growth medium 1 .
"Setting Seeds Free": Regulatory Revolution
Perhaps one of the most provocative visions to emerge was the need to reform what the workshop termed "economical and legal conditions for variety improvement." Their bold vision called for "Setting Seeds Free"—reimagining regulatory and commercial environments for seed production and marketing to encourage greater diversity and adaptation to local conditions 4 .
This challenge to conventional seed systems anticipated today's growing movement toward open-source seeds and farmer-led breeding initiatives that are gaining traction across Europe and North America.
Participatory Research: Involving Stakeholders
The SUSVAR vision emphasized that sustainable cereal production would require much greater levels of participatory research that actively involved farmers and other stakeholders in the research process 4 . This marked a significant departure from the traditional model where researchers developed technologies and practices that were then transferred to farmers.
The workshop recognized that sustainable solutions must be co-created with those who understand local conditions and constraints—an approach that has since become central to much agroecological research.
In-Depth Look: The Variety Mixtures Experiment
Testing Diversity as a Path to Sustainability
While the SUSVAR workshop was primarily focused on visioning, it built upon substantial research including fascinating work on cereal variety mixtures. Although not conducted specifically at the Karrebæksminde workshop, research on variety mixtures was an important foundation for the visions developed there and was referenced in the subsequent publications 3 .
One key study examined how genetic diversity in spring barley mixtures affected yield stability and weed suppression across different environmental conditions. This research tested the hypothesis that diverse crop populations would be more resilient to environmental stresses and more competitive against weeds—key considerations for sustainable production systems with reduced chemical inputs 3 .
Methodology: Measuring Diversity's Benefits
The research involved multiple field trials across Europe, comparing monocultures of spring barley varieties with mixtures of different genetic compositions. Researchers carefully measured:
Grain Yield
Measured in tons per hectare to quantify productivity
Weed Suppression
Measured as weed biomass per unit area to assess competition
Yield Stability
Measured across different environments to evaluate resilience
The experiments employed sophisticated statistical methods including meta-analysis to combine results from multiple trials and identify general patterns that might be obscured in individual experiments due to local conditions or limited sample sizes 3 .
Results and Analysis: The Power of Diversity
The results demonstrated that variety mixtures consistently outperformed monocultures in several key metrics:
Yield Advantage of Barley Variety Mixtures Over Monocultures
| Number of Varieties in Mixture | Average Yield Increase (%) | Yield Stability Improvement (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 varieties | 3.2% | 12.4% |
| 3 varieties | 5.7% | 18.6% |
| 4+ varieties | 8.1% | 24.3% |
Weed Suppression by Variety Mixtures Under Different Management Systems
| Management System | Weed Biomass Reduction (%) | Yield Advantage Over Monoculture (%) |
|---|---|---|
| High-input | 18.2% | 3.8% |
| Low-input | 31.7% | 8.9% |
| Organic | 35.4% | 12.3% |
The research also showed that mixtures were significantly better at suppressing weeds—a major advantage for reducing herbicide use in sustainable systems. On average, mixtures reduced weed biomass by 27% compared to monocultures, with greater suppression in higher-diversity mixtures 3 .
Key Finding
The benefits of diversity were greatest in low-input systems and under stressful growing conditions—exactly the scenarios that are expected to become more common with climate change and the transition to more sustainable agricultural practices.
These findings provided strong scientific support for one of the key visions to emerge from the SUSVAR workshop: that future cereal production would need to deploy genetically diverse crops through either varietal mixtures or composite cross populations 4 .
The Scientist's Toolkit: Research Reagent Solutions for Sustainable Cereal Studies
The research underpinning the SUSVAR visions relied on several specialized materials and approaches.
Essential Research Tools for Sustainable Cereal Studies
| Tool/Reagent | Function | Application in SUSVAR Research |
|---|---|---|
| Composite Cross Populations | Genetically diverse populations created by crossing multiple varieties | Studying the benefits of genetic diversity for resilience and adaptation |
| Appreciative Inquiry | Strategic facilitation method that focuses on possibilities rather than problems | Workshop visioning process for envisioning sustainable futures |
| Meta-analysis | Statistical technique for combining results from multiple studies | Quantifying the benefits of variety mixtures across environments |
| Participatory Frameworks | Structures for involving farmers and other stakeholders in the research process | Ensuring solutions are practical and adopted by end-users |
| Molecular Markers | DNA sequences used to identify specific genetic characteristics | Exploiting genotype-environment interactions in organic systems |
Composite Cross Populations
Creating genetic diversity through intentional crossing of multiple varieties to enhance resilience
Meta-analysis
Statistical approach combining results from multiple studies to identify overarching patterns
Participatory Research
Engaging farmers and stakeholders directly in the research process for more applicable results
Legacy and Future Directions
The SUSVAR Visions Workshop produced a remarkable convergence of opinion among researchers from different disciplines and perspectives. As Professor Østergård noted: "Partly this convergence of opinion has been driven by the growing realisation that Europe and the wider world must address the threat of food and resource shortages, but mostly it has been driven by robust debate, the sharing between disciplines of scientific knowledge and the power of positive networking" 4 .
The workshop's final stage involved connecting the seven topic areas into a comprehensive vision of cereal production within a future sustainable socio-ecological system. This work was continued by a group of key persons within the network after the workshop, with plans for publication in a scientific journal 1 .
Our time-frame for change may be short, but most of the tools and techniques we need for reform of our cereal growing are available today.
— Professor Hanne Østergård, SUSVAR coordinator 4
Fifteen years later, the visions developed at Karrebæksminde have proven remarkably prescient. Many of the approaches advocated—diverse cropping systems, participatory research models, and reformed seed regulations—have moved from the margins to the mainstream of agricultural research and policy.
Perhaps most importantly, the workshop demonstrated the power of positive visioning in addressing complex challenges. Rather than being constrained by current limitations, participants created ambitious yet achievable visions that continue to inspire researchers, farmers, and policymakers working toward truly sustainable food systems.
As Professor Østergård optimistically noted: "Our time-frame for change may be short, but most of the tools and techniques we need for reform of our cereal growing are available today. We just need to assemble them in novel ways and make sure that regulation, economic and political will are working with sustainable methods, not against them" 4 .
In an era of climate change, biodiversity loss, and food insecurity, the bold visions crafted in that Danish seaside town in 2008 offer not just hope but a practical roadmap for building better cereal systems for the twenty-first century and beyond.