The puzzle of price inequality: why grain costs differ across the country
Wheat prices in Russia form a complex mosaic consisting of many factors. Why are buyers willing to pay up to 16,000 rubles per ton of class 3 wheat in Krasnodar Krai, while in Chelyabinsk Oblast the price is only 12,500 rubles? The solution to this puzzle lies in analyzing the balance of grain resources and utilization - a complex system where economic, logistical, and agronomic laws intertwine.
Balance of grain resources and utilization is an accounting system that tracks all sources of income and directions of wheat use within a region or country as a whole. Key components of this balance include:
Volumes of grown wheat, which directly depend on weather conditions, farming technologies, and sown areas.
Sale of grain abroad. Russia is a world leader in wheat exports with about 21% share of the world market5 .
Use of grain for food, feed, and industrial needs within the country.
Grain residues from the previous season that help smooth out supply fluctuations.
A vivid example is the situation in 2020, when with a record harvest, bread prices increased, causing bewilderment at the highest level of government2 .
Russia, with its vast territory and diverse climatic conditions, demonstrates significant regional differentiation in wheat prices. According to monitoring data for October 2025, the price picture looks as follows:
| Region | Price at Mill | Price at Grain Terminal |
|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar Krai | - | 16,000 rub. |
| Rostov Oblast | - | 14,500-14,800 rub. |
| Volgograd Oblast | 13,300 rub. | - |
| Saratov Oblast | 14,500 rub. | - |
| Chelyabinsk Oblast | 12,500 rub. | - |
| Novosibirsk Oblast | 13,000 rub. | - |
Source: Price monitoring data Agro-bursa.ru as of 05.10.20253
The highest prices are set in regions of the Southern Federal District, due to their proximity to ports of export infrastructure.
Besides geographical location, grain quality determined by its class significantly influences price.
| Wheat Class | Quality Parameters | Example Region and Price |
|---|---|---|
| Class 3 | Gluten 23-28%, protein 13.5-14.5% | Krasnodar Krai: 16,000 rub. |
| Class 4 | Gluten 18-22%, protein 11.5-12.5% | Krasnodar Krai: 15,500-15,800 rub. |
| Class 5 | Gluten less than 18% | Rostov Oblast: 13,700-13,800 rub. |
| Durum Wheat | Specific qualities | Orenburg Oblast: 18,500 rub. |
Source: Price monitoring data Agro-bursa.ru3
The price difference between higher and lower wheat classes can reach 20-30%, creating serious economic incentives for farmers to invest in improving product quality.
The transmission mechanism of world prices to the domestic market is a key element in forming regional wheat prices. The logic of this process is as follows: the domestic price in port regions tends to the level of world prices minus transport costs and export duties.
The geography of Russian grain exports is constantly expanding - if in 2023 Russian grain was purchased by 101 countries, then in 2024 their number increased to 117.
| Importing Country | Supply Volume, million tons | Dynamics vs Previous Season |
|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 8.61 | -1% |
| Turkey | 3.55 | -50% |
| Bangladesh | 2.82 | -25% |
| Nigeria | 1.54 | +170% |
| Morocco | 1.13 | +130% |
Source: Data from Rosselkhoznadzor and Grain Exporters Union5
In 2022, the Russian government introduced a mechanism of floating export duties to contain the growth of domestic prices. This tool allows withdrawing part of exporters' income at high world prices, reducing their interest in the outflow of grain from the domestic market2 .
Agricultural economists use complex mathematical models that allow predicting prices considering many variables. A simplified version of such research may include:
Price data from various regions
Logistics costs, quality parameters
Determining factor weights
Based on real market data
According to analysts' forecasts, in the new export season, competition will intensify in traditional markets from EU countries5 . This will create additional pressure on the price competitiveness of Russian wheat.
Another challenge is the reorientation of farmers to more marginal crops. The high profitability of oilseeds and legumes has already led to the fact that in the Central Federal District, oilseed plantings in the 2025/26 season may for the first time exceed wheat indicators5 .
Climatic risks also remain a significant factor - in 2024, a state of emergency was declared 34 times in 27 regions of Russia5 , which significantly affects production volumes and regional distribution of resources.
Pricing for wheat in Russian regions represents a complex, dynamic system influenced by many factors - from weather conditions in Siberia to food policy in Egypt. The balance of grain resources and utilization serves as the compass that allows navigating this multidimensional space.
Understanding the mechanisms of this balance is important not only for agricultural specialists but for everyone interested in the country's economy. Grain was and remains a "quiet but formidable weapon" of Russia in the international arena2 , and its price in regions is an accurate indicator of the state of this strategic resource.